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European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Hryvnialoss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
pma · 14 games
64%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Daze · 11 games
45%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 11 games
82%
Magnus
Magnussignature
pma · 10 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
toshiyb · 10 games
50%
Techies
Techies
Daze · 10 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Niku · 9 games
22%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ri4man · 9 games
56%

Team Hryvnia

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
260 picks · 329 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
249 picks · 114 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
217 picks · 225 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
216 picks · 480 bans
62%
Phoenix
Phoenix
211 picks · 291 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
200 picks · 387 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
193 picks · 439 bans
58%
Muerta
Muerta
185 picks · 276 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Team Hryvnia
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:16
Natus Vincere Junior 69%Team Hryvnia 31%
The model gave 69% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 34:29.
Game 2prediction correct35:21
Natus Vincere Junior 69%Team Hryvnia 31%
The model gave 69% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 32:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 69%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2