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WINLINE Star Series #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Stray Clubwin 2:1
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Cooman Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Stray Club

Mirana
Mirana
Goodoq · 3 games
67%
Techies
Techies
Goodoq · 3 games
33%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Vovapain · 3 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Stray · 2 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Stray · 2 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
Stray · 2 games
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Vovapain · 2 games
0%
Marci
Marci
DkFogas · 2 games
50%

Cooman Team

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Alberkaaa · 2 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Fruktozka · 1 game
0%
Bane
Baneoften banned
Fruktozka · 1 game
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Alberkaaa · 1 game
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fruktozka · 1 game
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Alberkaaa · 1 game
100%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
Cooman · 1 game
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Mariachi · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
463 picks · 283 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
307 picks · 133 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
306 picks · 125 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
301 picks · 456 bans
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
281 picks · 287 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
279 picks · 416 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
272 picks · 232 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
268 picks · 364 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Stray Club
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total64% Cooman Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:32
Stray Club 42%Cooman Team 58%
The model gave 58% on Cooman Team — the game was taken by Cooman Team in 39:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmotherzvёzd
61% · 28 games53% · 196 games
MuertaCooman
Muerta
Slardar
SlardarDkFogas
48% · 250 games46% · 216 games
SnapfireMariachi
Snapfire
Tidehunter
TidehunterStray
49% · 163 games48% · 251 game
AxeAlberkaaa
Axe
Mirana
MiranaVovapain
51% · 100 games50% · 142 games
UndyingFruktozka
Undying
Tiny
TinyGoodoq
51% · 264 games
Game 2prediction missed45:25
Stray Club 45%Cooman Team 55%
The model gave 55% on Cooman Team — the game was taken by Stray Club in 42:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautzvёzd
49% · 65 games53% · 15 games
Phantom AssassinMariachi
Phantom Assassin
Zeus
ZeusStray
53% · 14 games60% · 120 games
InvokerCooman
Invoker
Slark
SlarkDkFogas
43% · 20 games45% · 70 games
Sand KingAlberkaaa
Sand King
Warlock
WarlockVovapain
50% · 162 games49% · 164 games
DisruptorFruktozka
Disruptor
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGoodoq
49% · 108 games
Game 3prediction missed27:12
Stray Club 43%Cooman Team 57%
The model gave 57% on Cooman Team — the game was taken by Stray Club in 31:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenzvёzd
45% · 49 games58% · 114 games
LeshracCooman
Leshrac
Pudge
PudgeDkFogas
39% · 20 games50% · 37 games
SlarkMariachi
Slark
Pugna
PugnaStray
43% · 33 games60% · 124 games
LargoAlberkaaa
Largo
Tusk
TuskGoodoq
48% · 179 games48% · 44 games
LichFruktozka
Lich
Silencer
SilencerFervian
42% · 38 games
Model check result
Model favoriteCooman Team · 64%
Series resultStray Club 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3