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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
sayuw · 12 games
83%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 12 games
75%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Squad1x · 10 games
80%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 9 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 9 games
44%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Fng · 9 games
33%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
sayuw · 9 games
67%

BOOM Esports

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ws · 6 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 6 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Xepher · 5 games
40%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Natsumi · 5 games
40%
Lion
Lion
BoBoKa · 4 games
25%
Mars
Mars
Ws · 4 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 4 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 4 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
258 picks · 329 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
249 picks · 114 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
217 picks · 225 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
215 picks · 479 bans
62%
Phoenix
Phoenix
210 picks · 291 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
199 picks · 387 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
193 picks · 439 bans
58%
Muerta
Muerta
185 picks · 274 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 42%
Hero pool strength62% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:20
Virtus.pro 62%BOOM Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 37:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaKiritych
54% · 40 games57% · 84 games
SvenPakazs
Sven
Brewmaster
BrewmasterNoticed
49% · 60 games46% · 71 game
Centaur WarrunnerSacred
Centaur Warrunner
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSquad1x
41% · 73 games46% · 41 game
Crystal MaidenMatthew
Crystal Maiden
Chen
ChenFng
59% · 48 games51% · 100 games
Skywrath MageMjz
Skywrath Mage
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAntares
47% · 75 games
Game 2prediction correct28:19
Virtus.pro 64%BOOM Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 31:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageKiritych
49% · 51 game49% · 233 games
MorphlingPakazs
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierSquad1x
56% · 194 games44% · 118 games
Centaur WarrunnerSacred
Centaur Warrunner
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerNoticed
48% · 137 games50% · 76 games
OracleMatthew
Oracle
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAntares
55% · 88 games46% · 204 games
PhoenixMjz
Phoenix
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFng
54% · 161 game
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 70%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2