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WINLINE Star Series #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Stariy_Bog Clubwin 2:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
VooDooSh Clubloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Stariy_Bog Club

Disruptor
Disruptor
D_Mini · 3 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
D_Mini · 3 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Stariy bog · 3 games
33%
Windranger
Windranger
Satanic · 3 games
0%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Antares · 2 games
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Stariy bog · 2 games
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
D_Mini · 2 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
D_Mini · 2 games
50%

VooDooSh Club

Magnus
Magnus
chambi · 4 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
Cake · 4 games
75%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
VooDooSh · 4 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Shigetsu · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Limitless · 2 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Cake · 2 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Limitless · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Limitless · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
465 picks · 288 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
318 picks · 128 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
316 picks · 138 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
306 picks · 450 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
285 picks · 291 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
284 picks · 421 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
271 picks · 214 bans
50%
Undying
Undying
265 picks · 365 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 70%
Hero pool strength56% VooDooSh Club
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total50% VooDooSh Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:7
Stariy_Bog Club 49%VooDooSh Club 51%
The model gave 51% on VooDooSh Club — the game was taken by Stariy_Bog Club in 24:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckStariy bog
50% · 272 games46% · 67 games
AlchemistShigetsu
Alchemist
Batrider
BatriderAntares
55% · 192 games50% · 33 games
Linachambi
Lina
Ursa
UrsaSatanic
48% · 156 games59% · 83 games
EnigmaLimitless
Enigma
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeD_Mini
48% · 68 games48% · 154 games
Shadow ShamanVooDooSh
Shadow Shaman
45% · 351 game
TuskCake
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed35:41
Stariy_Bog Club 51%VooDooSh Club 49%
The model gave 51% on Stariy_Bog Club — the game was taken by VooDooSh Club in 46:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSatanic
66% · 29 games50% · 37 games
Anti-MageShigetsu
Anti-Mage
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritAntares
59% · 17 games43% · 127 games
Nature's Prophetchambi
Nature's Prophet
Snapfire
SnapfireStariy bog
47% · 140 games46% · 30 games
KunkkaLimitless
Kunkka
Disruptor
DisruptorD_Mini
52% · 83 games47% · 47 games
MiranaCake
Mirana
53% · 28 games
Ogre MagiVooDooSh
Ogre Magi
Game 3prediction missed0:0
Stariy_Bog Club 48%VooDooSh Club 52%
The model gave 52% on VooDooSh Club — the game was taken by Stariy_Bog Club in 45:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingSatanic
52% · 107 games52% · 185 games
Nature's Prophetchambi
Nature's Prophet
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAntares
53% · 307 games49% · 197 games
UrsaShigetsu
Ursa
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageStariy bog
45% · 93 games50% · 232 games
TidehunterLimitless
Tidehunter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkD_Mini
50% · 379 games52% · 161 game
LionVooDooSh
Lion
45% · 111 games
PugnaCake
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteVooDooSh Club · 50%
Series resultStariy_Bog Club 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3