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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamwin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MarsBet Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SIBE Team

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
erase · 11 games
73%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
emptiness · 10 games
90%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
erase · 10 games
60%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
nesfeer · 9 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
klassnokruto · 8 games
88%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
y0nd · 7 games
43%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
y0nd · 7 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 6 games
17%

MarsBet Team

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 12 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 9 games
56%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
63%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Jeezy · 6 games
0%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Otaker · 5 games
40%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Mr. Luck · 4 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Jeezy · 4 games
50%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Otaker · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
257 picks · 325 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
250 picks · 113 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
217 picks · 225 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
214 picks · 477 bans
61%
Phoenix
Phoenix
209 picks · 291 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
199 picks · 389 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
188 picks · 441 bans
58%
Muerta
Muerta
185 picks · 269 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 52%
Hero pool strength58% SIBE Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:53
SIBE Team 58%MarsBet Team 42%
The model gave 58% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 1:08:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerklassnokruto
51% · 79 games56% · 81 game
Faceless VoidOtaker
Faceless Void
Lifestealer
Lifestealernesfeer
45% · 38 games52% · 99 games
Centaur WarrunnerMr. Luck
Centaur Warrunner
Puck
Puckряф^^
50% · 77 games44% · 50 games
Ancient ApparitionLeBronDota
Ancient Apparition
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetemptiness
53% · 110 games49% · 88 games
Grimstrokevelheor
Grimstroke
Jakiro
JakiroRein
42% · 14 games
Game 2prediction correct39:31
SIBE Team 57%MarsBet Team 43%
The model gave 57% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 48:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightряф^^
62% · 88 games45% · 82 games
Faceless VoidOtaker
Faceless Void
Spectre
Spectrenesfeer
49% · 72 games52% · 201 game
Nature's Prophetvelheor
Nature's Prophet
Brewmaster
Brewmasterklassnokruto
49% · 60 games63% · 54 games
BroodmotherMr. Luck
Broodmother
Phoenix
PhoenixRein
34% · 105 games49% · 35 games
LionLeBronDota
Lion
Weaver
Weaveremptiness
47% · 47 games
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 66%
Series resultSIBE Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2