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European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportswin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nightshadeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
V-Tune · 9 games
44%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
StoneBank · 9 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 9 games
56%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Dendi · 8 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Kidaro · 8 games
75%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
75%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
StoneBank · 8 games
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
43%

Nightshade

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
Kyzko · 4 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kyzko · 3 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
100%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
ani-san · 2 games
100%
Lion
Lion
Kyzko · 2 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
258 picks · 324 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
250 picks · 112 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
221 picks · 226 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
216 picks · 482 bans
61%
Phoenix
Phoenix
210 picks · 289 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
200 picks · 396 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
188 picks · 447 bans
58%
Muerta
Muerta
186 picks · 266 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:11
B8 Esports 52%Nightshade 48%
The model gave 52% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 34:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidLowskill
45% · 14 games52% · 39 games
BristlebackChodΣX
Bristleback
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerStoneBank
47% · 22 games52% · 40 games
LionKyzko
Lion
Magnus
MagnusDendi
59% · 9 games
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeCTOMAHEH1
45% · 18 games
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionMary_y
50% · 16 games
Game 2prediction correct42:10
B8 Esports 53%Nightshade 47%
The model gave 53% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 28:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenLowskill
46% · 38 games51% · 78 games
Dark SeerChodΣX
Dark Seer
Invoker
InvokerDendi
52% · 17 games41% · 11 games
Nyx AssassinKyzko
Nyx Assassin
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerStoneBank
50% · 4 games
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanCTOMAHEH1
little data
Pugna
PugnaMary_y
53% · 30 games
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 58%
Series resultB8 Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2