Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Kleeloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Dark Willowsignature
sayuw · 12 games
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 12 games
Earthshakersignature
Squad1x · 10 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 9 games
Skywrath Magesignature
sayuw · 9 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Noticed · 9 games
Team Klee
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
257 picks · 323 bans
Dark Willow
252 picks · 112 bans
Vengeful Spirit
223 picks · 228 bans
Treant Protector
216 picks · 484 bans
Phoenix
209 picks · 290 bans
Pangolier
200 picks · 398 bans
Muerta
186 picks · 265 bans
Nature's Prophet
186 picks · 452 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 64%
Hero pool strength55% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:11
Virtus.pro 64%Team Klee 36%
The model gave 64% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 29:25.
Game 2prediction missed25:47
Virtus.pro 64%Team Klee 36%
The model gave 64% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Team Klee in 40:53.
Game 3prediction correct26:10
Virtus.pro 64%Team Klee 36%
The model gave 64% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 25:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 64%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3