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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tickleswin 2:1
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Level UPloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tickles

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 9 games
78%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 9 games
78%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Adzantick · 7 games
71%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
NARMAN · 6 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Dukalis · 6 games
67%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Shad · 6 games
83%
Sven
Svensignature
Shad · 6 games
83%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Dukalis · 6 games
33%

Level UP

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 18 games
67%
Silencer
Silencer
MiLAN · 13 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 12 games
83%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Lorenof · 12 games
67%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Daxak · 12 games
58%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Lorenof · 10 games
80%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
OwnedMe · 9 games
78%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
swedenstrong · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
256 picks · 320 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
252 picks · 112 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
225 picks · 228 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
214 picks · 479 bans
61%
Phoenix
Phoenix
207 picks · 287 bans
45%
Pangolier
Pangolier
201 picks · 399 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
186 picks · 257 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
186 picks · 447 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% Team Tickles
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total77% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:29
Team Tickles 68%Level UP 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Level UP in 34:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinUlnit
48% · 62 games48% · 72 games
Templar AssassinStojkov
Templar Assassin
Huskar
HuskarLorenof
55% · 17 games58% · 27 games
LifestealerFocus
Lifestealer
Kunkka
KunkkaForce
47% · 111 games48% · 58 games
TidehunterEkki
Tidehunter
Chen
ChenDukalis
59% · 50 games47% · 116 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNARMAN
52% · 124 games48% · 91 game
EnchantressKidaro
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct27:6
Team Tickles 65%Level UP 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 32:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistUlnit
51% · 71 game50% · 62 games
LunaFocus
Luna
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinLorenof
52% · 100 games49% · 116 games
Dragon KnightStojkov
Dragon Knight
Dark Seer
Dark SeerForce
50% · 81 game47% · 167 games
PhoenixEkki
Phoenix
Enchantress
EnchantressDukalis
49% · 179 games51% · 118 games
EarthshakerdEsire
Earthshaker
Tusk
TuskNARMAN
51% · 182 games50% · 150 games
PugnaKidaro
Pugna
Game 3prediction correct32:22
Team Tickles 64%Level UP 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 41:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightLorenof
53% · 129 games61% · 58 games
Chaos KnightFocus
Chaos Knight
Spectre
SpectreUlnit
50% · 59 games46% · 155 games
PuckStojkov
Puck
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerForce
45% · 78 games48% · 103 games
DawnbreakerEkki
Dawnbreaker
Enchantress
EnchantressNARMAN
51% · 131 game51% · 159 games
Skywrath MagedEsire
Skywrath Mage
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorDukalis
52% · 179 games47% · 101 game
GrimstrokeKidaro
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 77%
Series resultTeam Tickles 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3