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European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team_Teamloss 1:2
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Night Pulsewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team_Team

Spectre
Spectreoften banned
Crystallize · 4 games
100%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
EcNart · 4 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 3 games
33%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
EcNart · 3 games
0%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
EcNart · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 2 games
50%

Night Pulse

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
JANTER · 2 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
JANTER · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
256 picks · 320 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
252 picks · 112 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
225 picks · 228 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
214 picks · 479 bans
61%
Phoenix
Phoenix
207 picks · 287 bans
45%
Pangolier
Pangolier
201 picks · 399 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
186 picks · 257 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
186 picks · 447 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 38%
Hero pool strength54% Team_Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Team_Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:8
Team_Team 69%Night Pulse 31%
The model gave 69% on Team_Team — the game was taken by Team_Team in 24:36.
Game 2prediction missed20:32
Team_Team 69%Night Pulse 31%
The model gave 69% on Team_Team — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 34:29.
Game 3prediction missed22:36
Team_Team 69%Night Pulse 31%
The model gave 69% on Team_Team — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 29:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam_Team · 69%
Series resultNight Pulse 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3