?
arrow_backBack to match
Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportswin 2:1
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:1
KZ TEAMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 9 games
56%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Dendi · 8 games
75%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Funn1k · 7 games
43%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
V-Tune · 7 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Kidaro · 7 games
71%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
StoneBank · 7 games
71%

KZ TEAM

Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 17 games
47%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
SsaSpartan · 16 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 13 games
38%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
SkyLark · 11 games
55%
Mirana
Mirana
dEsire · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
W1sh- · 11 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 10 games
50%
Legion Commander
Legion Commandersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
255 picks · 313 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
250 picks · 111 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
226 picks · 233 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
216 picks · 473 bans
63%
Phoenix
Phoenix
205 picks · 284 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
204 picks · 404 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
187 picks · 453 bans
60%
Muerta
Muerta
185 picks · 248 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:14
B8 Esports 40%KZ TEAM 60%
The model gave 60% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 29:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNande
52% · 183 games52% · 65 games
Spectre7jesu
Spectre
Tidehunter
TidehunterStoneBank
51% · 112 games56% · 111 games
Void SpiritW1sh-
Void Spirit
Kunkka
KunkkaDendi
40% · 59 games48% · 20 games
ViperSkyLark
Viper
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCTOMAHEH1
42% · 147 games49% · 172 games
Spirit BreakerAstral
Spirit Breaker
Enigma
EnigmaMary_y
55% · 102 games51% · 235 games
UndyingSsaSpartan
Undying
Game 2prediction correct13:28
B8 Esports 40%KZ TEAM 60%
The model gave 60% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 34:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinDendi
52% · 140 games52% · 90 games
Muerta7jesu
Muerta
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidNande
46% · 109 games55% · 17 games
Lone DruidSkyLark
Lone Druid
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerStoneBank
56% · 110 games47% · 102 games
InvokerW1sh-
Invoker
Pugna
PugnaCTOMAHEH1
49% · 97 games54% · 120 games
Dark WillowAstral
Dark Willow
Jakiro
JakiroMary_y
41% · 34 games48% · 161 game
TuskSsaSpartan
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed39:22
B8 Esports 43%KZ TEAM 57%
The model gave 57% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 46:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNande
50% · 96 games45% · 44 games
Wraith King7jesu
Wraith King
Puck
PuckDendi
50% · 123 games55% · 45 games
RazorSkyLark
Razor
Night Stalker
Night StalkerStoneBank
64% · 28 games44% · 99 games
InvokerW1sh-
Invoker
Pugna
PugnaMary_y
54% · 64 games48% · 56 games
Ancient ApparitionSsaSpartan
Ancient Apparition
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeCTOMAHEH1
51% · 97 games49% · 164 games
TuskAstral
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 66%
Series resultB8 Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3