European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team_Teamwin 2:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team_Team
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 3 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
Spectreoften banned
Crystallize · 3 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
EcNart · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
EcNart · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Moonlight · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Crystallize · 2 games
Linaoften banned
Moonlight · 2 games
Natus Vincere Junior
Vengeful Spiritsignature
pma · 14 games
Batrideroften banned
Daze · 11 games
Techies
Daze · 10 games
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 9 games
Magnusoften banned
pma · 9 games
Pangolieroften banned
toshiyb · 9 games
Void Spirit
Ri4man · 9 games
Doomoften banned
pma · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
255 picks · 313 bans
Dark Willow
250 picks · 111 bans
Vengeful Spirit
226 picks · 233 bans
Treant Protector
216 picks · 473 bans
Phoenix
205 picks · 284 bans
Pangolier
204 picks · 404 bans
Nature's Prophet
187 picks · 453 bans
Muerta
185 picks · 248 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% Team_Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:23
Team_Team 46%Natus Vincere Junior 54%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Team_Team in 47:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerCrystallize
Morphlinggotthejuice
LinaMoonlight
Dragon KnightNiku
TidehunterInfernal
Necrophospma
Treant ProtectorEcNart
MarciDaze
54% · 63 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Game 2prediction correct14:36
Team_Team 43%Natus Vincere Junior 57%
The model gave 57% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 36:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterInfernal
Faceless Voidgotthejuice
LunaCrystallize
PangolierNiku
ZeusMoonlight
Magnuspma
TuskEcNart
Dark WillowDaze
51% · 68 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Game 3prediction missed30:33
Team_Team 48%Natus Vincere Junior 52%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Team_Team in 52:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreCrystallize
Svengotthejuice
BeastmasterInfernal
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Storm SpiritMoonlight
KunkkaNiku
Nature's ProphetEcNart
HoodwinkDaze
47% · 52 games
Ancient ApparitionRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 58%
Series resultTeam_Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3