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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 0:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 20 games
70%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
MiLAN · 13 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 12 games
83%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Daxak · 12 games
58%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Lorenof · 11 games
73%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Daxak · 10 games
90%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Lorenof · 10 games
80%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
OwnedMe · 9 games
78%

Natus Vincere Junior

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
pma · 13 games
62%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Daze · 11 games
45%
Techies
Techies
Daze · 10 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 9 games
89%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
pma · 9 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
toshiyb · 9 games
44%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ri4man · 9 games
56%
Doom
Doomoften banned
pma · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
258 picks · 311 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
250 picks · 111 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
227 picks · 236 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
217 picks · 473 bans
63%
Pangolier
Pangolier
206 picks · 403 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
206 picks · 284 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
187 picks · 459 bans
60%
Muerta
Muerta
185 picks · 247 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 39%
Hero pool strength59% Level UP
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total62% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:29
Level UP 56%Natus Vincere Junior 44%
The model gave 56% on Level UP — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 41:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreFocus
56% · 85 games54% · 137 games
Faceless Voidgotthejuice
Faceless Void
Lina
LinaStojkov
51% · 113 games44% · 124 games
PuckNiku
Puck
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKidaro
47% · 211 games55% · 155 games
Tidehunterpma
Tidehunter
Batrider
BatriderEkki
51% · 237 games47% · 71 game
MuertaDaze
Muerta
Magnus
MagnusdEsire
40% · 125 games56% · 284 games
Treant ProtectorRiddys
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed20:40
Level UP 53%Natus Vincere Junior 47%
The model gave 53% on Level UP — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 39:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeFocus
48% · 182 games50% · 162 games
Templar Assassingotthejuice
Templar Assassin
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainStojkov
51% · 64 games49% · 85 games
Vengeful Spiritpma
Vengeful Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerEkki
44% · 71 game51% · 190 games
Storm SpiritNiku
Storm Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixdEsire
46% · 133 games43% · 82 games
MarciDaze
Marci
Enchantress
EnchantressKidaro
57% · 219 games57% · 150 games
PugnaRiddys
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 62%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2