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European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMloss 0:2
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KZ TEAM

Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 17 games
47%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
SsaSpartan · 16 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 12 games
42%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
SkyLark · 11 games
55%
Mirana
Mirana
dEsire · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
W1sh- · 11 games
64%
Legion Commander
Legion Commandersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 9 games
56%

Natus Vincere Junior

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
pma · 13 games
62%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Daze · 11 games
45%
Techies
Techies
Daze · 10 games
40%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
pma · 9 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
toshiyb · 9 games
44%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ri4man · 9 games
56%
Doom
Doomoften banned
pma · 8 games
38%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
pma · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
257 picks · 306 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
250 picks · 111 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
227 picks · 235 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
213 picks · 469 bans
64%
Pangolier
Pangolier
204 picks · 404 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
203 picks · 278 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
185 picks · 455 bans
59%
Muerta
Muerta
182 picks · 243 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 36%
Hero pool strength53% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total73% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:24
KZ TEAM 64%Natus Vincere Junior 36%
The model gave 64% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 39:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaver7jesu
58% · 53 games46% · 173 games
Morphlinggotthejuice
Morphling
Puck
PuckW1sh-
55% · 120 games51% · 40 games
DazzleNiku
Dazzle
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSkyLark
55% · 197 games37% · 109 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Pugna
PugnaSsaSpartan
62% · 88 games45% · 254 games
TuskDaze
Tusk
Phoenix
PhoenixAstral
47% · 160 games52% · 42 games
LionRiddys
Lion
Game 2prediction missed16:43
KZ TEAM 62%Natus Vincere Junior 38%
The model gave 62% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 38:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerW1sh-
46% · 89 games50% · 111 games
Faceless Voidgotthejuice
Faceless Void
Muerta
Muerta7jesu
49% · 116 games47% · 92 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Tidehunter
TidehunterSkyLark
49% · 91 game56% · 120 games
Keeper of the LightNiku
Keeper of the Light
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAstral
47% · 129 games52% · 131 game
PugnaDaze
Pugna
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorSsaSpartan
54% · 163 games50% · 134 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 73%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2