Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tickleswin 2:1series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
B8 Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tickles
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 9 games
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 8 games
Invokersignature
Adzantick · 6 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Dukalis · 6 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
Shad · 6 games
Svensignature
Shad · 6 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Adzantick · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Adzantick · 5 games
B8 Esports
Rubicksignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
Skywrath Magesignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
Batrideroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Funn1k · 7 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
V-Tune · 7 games
Techies
Lodine · 7 games
Earthshakersignature
Dendi · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
253 picks · 305 bans
Dark Willow
248 picks · 111 bans
Vengeful Spirit
226 picks · 235 bans
Treant Protector
212 picks · 465 bans
Pangolier
203 picks · 403 bans
Phoenix
203 picks · 276 bans
Nature's Prophet
184 picks · 451 bans
Muerta
180 picks · 242 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 55%
Hero pool strength58% Team Tickles
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed44:62
Team Tickles 64%B8 Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 1:23:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawForce
WeaverNande
InvokerLorenof
Wraith KingStoneBank
MuertaUlnit
PangolierDendi
Vengeful SpiritNARMAN
Treant ProtectorMary_y
TuskDukalis
GrimstrokeCTOMAHEH1
Game 2prediction correct23:10
Team Tickles 64%B8 Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 31:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeUlnit
WeaverNande
Templar AssassinLorenof
Storm SpiritDendi
TimbersawForce
Wraith KingStoneBank
MuertaNARMAN
Nature's ProphetMary_y
EnchantressDukalis
TuskCTOMAHEH1
Game 3prediction correct24:23
Team Tickles 64%B8 Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 1:02:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingUlnit
MorphlingNande
PuckLorenof
Spirit BreakerStoneBank
BeastmasterForce
EarthshakerDendi
PugnaDukalis
Shadow DemonCTOMAHEH1
GrimstrokeNARMAN
Ancient ApparitionMary_y
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 77%
Series resultTeam Tickles 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3