Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Klim Sani4loss 0:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
DBDudley boyswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Klim Sani4
No games played over 6 months.
Dudley boys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
255 picks · 303 bans
Dark Willow
247 picks · 111 bans
Vengeful Spirit
229 picks · 243 bans
Treant Protector
212 picks · 466 bans
Phoenix
206 picks · 275 bans
Pangolier
202 picks · 409 bans
Nature's Prophet
183 picks · 462 bans
Muerta
180 picks · 240 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Klim Sani4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Klim Sani4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:25
Klim Sani4 57%Dudley boys 43%
The model gave 57% on Klim Sani4 — the game was taken by Dudley boys in 51:31.
Game 2prediction missed53:41
Klim Sani4 57%Dudley boys 43%
The model gave 57% on Klim Sani4 — the game was taken by Dudley boys in 52:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteKlim Sani4 · 57%
Series resultDudley boys 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2