European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nightshadeloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nightshade
Nyx Assassin
Kyzko · 4 games
Brewmasteroften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
Kyzko · 1 game
Shadow Shaman
Kyzko · 1 game
Natus Vincere Junior
Vengeful Spiritsignature
pma · 13 games
Batrideroften banned
Daze · 11 games
Techies
Daze · 10 games
Magnusoften banned
pma · 9 games
Pangolieroften banned
toshiyb · 9 games
Void Spirit
Ri4man · 9 games
Doomoften banned
pma · 8 games
Dragon Knight
pma · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
254 picks · 302 bans
Dark Willow
247 picks · 111 bans
Vengeful Spirit
231 picks · 244 bans
Treant Protector
213 picks · 464 bans
Phoenix
207 picks · 277 bans
Pangolier
202 picks · 410 bans
Nature's Prophet
182 picks · 464 bans
Muerta
180 picks · 239 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Nightshade
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:24
Nightshade 50%Natus Vincere Junior 50%
The model gave 50% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 24:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Legion CommanderChodΣX
Templar Assassingotthejuice
LionKyzko
Axepma
52% · 36 games
Primal BeastNiku
56% · 19 games
Nature's ProphetDaze
45% · 16 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Game 2prediction correct12:41
Nightshade 49%Natus Vincere Junior 51%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 29:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal BeastChodΣX
Templar Assassingotthejuice
Shadow ShamanKyzko
DazzleNiku
31% · 9 games
Night Stalkerpma
55% · 101 game
ClockwerkRiddys
53% · 92 games
TuskDaze
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 50%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2