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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMwin 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KZ TEAM

Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 16 games
44%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
SsaSpartan · 13 games
62%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 12 games
42%
Mirana
Mirana
dEsire · 11 games
55%
Legion Commander
Legion Commandersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
70%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
SkyLark · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
W1sh- · 10 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 9 games
56%

Natus Vincere Junior

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
pma · 13 games
62%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Daze · 11 games
45%
Techies
Techies
Daze · 10 games
40%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
pma · 9 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
toshiyb · 9 games
44%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ri4man · 9 games
56%
Doom
Doomoften banned
pma · 8 games
38%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Daze · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
252 picks · 299 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
246 picks · 111 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
231 picks · 246 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
213 picks · 459 bans
63%
Phoenix
Phoenix
205 picks · 274 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
201 picks · 411 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
179 picks · 279 bans
45%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
179 picks · 174 bans
61%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 35%
Hero pool strength54% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:8
KZ TEAM 63%Natus Vincere Junior 37%
The model gave 63% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 24:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassin7jesu
54% · 82 games47% · 121 game
Dragon Knightpma
Dragon Knight
Huskar
HuskarW1sh-
57% · 3 games58% · 50 games
Spectregotthejuice
Spectre
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
40% · 89 games49% · 100 games
KunkkaNiku
Kunkka
Rubick
RubickAstral
52% · 280 games46% · 160 games
PhoenixRiddys
Phoenix
Oracle
OracleSsaSpartan
65% · 17 games50% · 40 games
WeaverDaze
Weaver
Game 2prediction missed18:30
KZ TEAM 61%Natus Vincere Junior 39%
The model gave 61% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 26:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
Necrophos7jesu
43% · 25 games51% · 23 games
DazzleNiku
Dazzle
Lina
LinaW1sh-
48% · 80 games60% · 85 games
Slarkgotthejuice
Slark
Brewmaster
BrewmasterSkyLark
45% · 72 games53% · 81 game
Kunkkapma
Kunkka
Phoenix
PhoenixAstral
43% · 135 games49% · 66 games
MarciDaze
Marci
Oracle
OracleSsaSpartan
52% · 29 games54% · 86 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction correct24:17
KZ TEAM 65%Natus Vincere Junior 35%
The model gave 65% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 28:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Void7jesu
51% · 117 games51% · 179 games
Terrorbladegotthejuice
Terrorblade
Pangolier
PangolierW1sh-
48% · 252 games54% · 92 games
KunkkaNiku
Kunkka
Lycan
LycanSkyLark
46% · 94 games52% · 99 games
Dawnbreakerpma
Dawnbreaker
Oracle
OracleSsaSpartan
55% · 36 games56% · 184 games
Nature's ProphetDaze
Nature's Prophet
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAstral
41% · 103 games52% · 48 games
Ancient ApparitionRiddys
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 76%
Series resultKZ TEAM 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3