Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Nemiga Gaming
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 19 games
Juggernautsignature
v1olent- · 11 games
Doomsignature
Corrupted · 10 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Corrupted · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
Hellscream · 7 games
Disruptorsignature
so bad · 7 games
Enchantress
so bad · 7 games
Phoenixoften banned
RodjER · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
248 picks · 298 bans
Dark Willow
246 picks · 109 bans
Vengeful Spirit
231 picks · 246 bans
Treant Protector
211 picks · 457 bans
Phoenix
204 picks · 272 bans
Pangolier
200 picks · 412 bans
Earth Spirit
179 picks · 277 bans
Earthshaker
178 picks · 174 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:28
Alliance 52%Nemiga Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 46:50.
Game 2prediction correct24:30
Alliance 52%Nemiga Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 46:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 52%
Series resultAlliance 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2