B8 Esports vs Night Pulse — prediction EPLS 14 · Dota 2

arrow_backBack to match

European Pro League Season 14 · BO3

result vs prediction

B8 Esportswin 2:1

series probability

73%27%

probability at match start · final 2:1

Night Pulseloss 1:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Rubicksignature

CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games

63%

Techies

Lodine · 8 games

38%

Batrideroften banned

CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games

43%

Beastmasteroften banned

Funn1k · 7 games

43%

Skywrath Magesignature

CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games

86%

Windranger

StoneBank · 7 games

29%

Ember Spiritoften banned

Dendi · 6 games

33%

Grimstrokesignature

Kidaro · 6 games

67%

Night Pulse

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Grimstroke

248 picks · 298 bans

52%

Dark Willow

246 picks · 109 bans

52%

Vengeful Spirit

231 picks · 246 bans

52%

Treant Protector

211 picks · 457 bans

63%

Phoenix

204 picks · 272 bans

48%

Pangolier

200 picks · 412 bans

51%

Earth Spirit

179 picks · 277 bans

45%

Earthshaker

178 picks · 174 bans

60%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)58% vs 33%

Hero pool strength52% B8 Esports

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total73% B8 Esports

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed7:27

B8 Esports 63%Night Pulse 37%

The model gave 63% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 28:22.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo