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European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamwin 2:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Night Pulseloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MarsBet Team

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 12 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 8 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
63%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Jeezy · 6 games
0%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Otaker · 5 games
40%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Mr. Luck · 4 games
75%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Otaker · 4 games
25%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Jeezy · 4 games
75%

Night Pulse

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
249 picks · 110 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
248 picks · 300 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
234 picks · 253 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
211 picks · 457 bans
63%
Phoenix
Phoenix
207 picks · 275 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
206 picks · 416 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
182 picks · 283 bans
45%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
181 picks · 176 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% Night Pulse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% MarsBet Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
MarsBet Team 66%Night Pulse 34%
The model gave 66% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team.
Game 2prediction missed
MarsBet Team 66%Night Pulse 34%
The model gave 66% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by Night Pulse.
Game 3prediction correct
MarsBet Team 66%Night Pulse 34%
The model gave 66% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsBet Team · 66%
Series resultMarsBet Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3