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European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
B8 Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
pma · 13 games
62%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Daze · 11 games
45%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Daze · 10 games
40%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
pma · 9 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
toshiyb · 9 games
44%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ri4man · 9 games
56%
Doom
Doomoften banned
pma · 8 games
38%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Daze · 8 games
38%

B8 Esports

Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 9 games
56%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Lodine · 9 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Funn1k · 8 games
38%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
43%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
86%
Windranger
Windranger
StoneBank · 7 games
29%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 6 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Kidaro · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
249 picks · 110 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
248 picks · 300 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
235 picks · 255 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
212 picks · 457 bans
63%
Phoenix
Phoenix
208 picks · 276 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
206 picks · 419 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
184 picks · 284 bans
46%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
181 picks · 176 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Natus Vincere Junior 49%B8 Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports.
Game 2prediction correct
Natus Vincere Junior 49%B8 Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 51%
Series resultB8 Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2