ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMwin 3:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 3:2
nounsloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TSM
Rubick
Ari · 22 games
Beastmastersignature
kasane · 19 games
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 15 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 13 games
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 11 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Whitemon · 11 games
Lycansignature
kasane · 10 games
Magnussignature
Timado · 10 games
nouns
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lelis · 16 games
Techiessignature
Husky · 15 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Moo · 11 games
Windranger
Gunnar · 11 games
Terrorbladesignature
YamSun · 10 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 9 games
Pugna
Lelis · 9 games
Skywrath Mage
Lelis · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Dark Willow
246 picks · 110 bans
Grimstroke
245 picks · 299 bans
Vengeful Spirit
234 picks · 263 bans
Treant Protector
211 picks · 449 bans
Phoenix
209 picks · 278 bans
Pangolier
205 picks · 424 bans
Earth Spirit
186 picks · 283 bans
Earthshaker
182 picks · 175 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% TSM
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total52% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:53
TSM 46%nouns 54%
The model gave 54% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 50:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinTimado
Faceless VoidYuma
Bristlebackkasane
Nature's ProphetLelis
Void Spiritbryle-
InvokerStormstormer
GrimstrokeImmersion
MagnusGunnar
Vengeful SpiritWhitemon
Ancient ApparitionFly
Game 2prediction correct48:48
TSM 49%nouns 51%
The model gave 51% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 1:46:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Linabryle-
MeepoYuma
SvenTimado
WindrangerStormstormer
Elder Titankasane
Centaur WarrunnerGunnar
WeaverWhitemon
Ancient ApparitionFly
PhoenixImmersion
Skywrath MageLelis
Game 3prediction missed56:19
TSM 50%nouns 50%
The model gave 50% on nouns — the game was taken by TSM in 40:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Linabryle-
LunaYuma
WindrangerTimado
NecrophosStormstormer
Kunkkakasane
AxeGunnar
Nature's ProphetWhitemon
TuskLelis
Dark WillowImmersion
PhoenixFly
Game 4prediction missed40:9
TSM 49%nouns 51%
The model gave 51% on nouns — the game was taken by TSM in 25:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith Kingkasane
SpectreYuma
WeaverTimado
Centaur WarrunnerGunnar
Earthshakerbryle-
Nature's ProphetFly
Dark WillowImmersion
Primal BeastStormstormer
GrimstrokeWhitemon
RubickLelis
Game 5prediction missed37:14
TSM 49%nouns 51%
The model gave 51% on nouns — the game was taken by TSM in 44:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingTimado
Naga SirenYuma
Wraith Kingkasane
NecrophosStormstormer
Pugnabryle-
Primal BeastGunnar
Dark WillowImmersion
EnchantressFly
Treant ProtectorWhitemon
Skywrath MageLelis
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 52%
Series resultTSM 3:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5