ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionWSWawitas Sagazeswin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Estar Backsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wawitas Sagazes
Enchantress
Panda · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 3 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Panda · 3 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Oscar · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 2 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Oscar · 2 games
Luna
Lumière · 2 games
Necrophosoften banned
DarkMago · 2 games
Estar Backs
Muertaoften banned
Michael · 4 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Mnz · 3 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
StingeR · 3 games
Dark Willow
Michael · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Mnz · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Mnz · 2 games
Rubick
Michael · 2 games
Snapfire
Michael · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
243 picks · 294 bans
Dark Willow
242 picks · 111 bans
Vengeful Spirit
234 picks · 263 bans
Phoenix
209 picks · 275 bans
Treant Protector
208 picks · 445 bans
Pangolier
204 picks · 423 bans
Earth Spirit
184 picks · 281 bans
Earthshaker
181 picks · 176 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 70%
Hero pool strength53% Estar Backs
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Wawitas Sagazes
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:11
Wawitas Sagazes 52%Estar Backs 48%
The model gave 52% on Wawitas Sagazes — the game was taken by Wawitas Sagazes in 37:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeLumière
MuertaMnz
Primal BeastOscar
Earth SpiritMichael
EarthshakerDarkMago
Dark WillowStingeR
Ancient ApparitionPanda
Game 2prediction correct45:52
Wawitas Sagazes 50%Estar Backs 50%
The model gave 50% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 1:03:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierDarkMago
SpectreMnz
WeaverOscar
MuertaMichael
Monkey KingLumière
Treant ProtectorStingeR
Ancient ApparitionPanda
Game 3prediction correct39:12
Wawitas Sagazes 52%Estar Backs 48%
The model gave 52% on Wawitas Sagazes — the game was taken by Wawitas Sagazes in 42:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverLumière
SpectreMnz
EarthshakerDarkMago
AxeFrank
NecrophosOscar
Skywrath MageStingeR
DawnbreakerPanda
MuertaMichael
Model check result
Model favoriteWawitas Sagazes · 54%
Series resultWawitas Sagazes 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3