ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Entityloss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Secretwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Team Secret
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 19 games
Batrideroften banned
yamich · 16 games
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 16 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
Snapfire
Armel · 13 games
Enchantress
Puppey · 12 games
Magnus
Armel · 12 games
Pugna
yamich · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
243 picks · 294 bans
Dark Willow
242 picks · 111 bans
Vengeful Spirit
234 picks · 263 bans
Phoenix
209 picks · 275 bans
Treant Protector
208 picks · 445 bans
Pangolier
204 picks · 423 bans
Earth Spirit
184 picks · 281 bans
Earthshaker
181 picks · 176 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Entity
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total56% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:21
Entity 44%Team Secret 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 40:53.
Game 2prediction correct28:16
Entity 44%Team Secret 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 41:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 56%
Series resultTeam Secret 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2