ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 3:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Team Zeroloss 0:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team Zero
Batridersignature
iceice · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
7e · 8 games
Brewmastersignature
BEYOND · 7 games
Morphlingsignature
Cty · 7 games
Earth Spiritsignature
7e · 6 games
Grimstrokesignature
zzq · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
7e · 6 games
Primal Beastoften banned
BEYOND · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
239 picks · 283 bans
Dark Willow
238 picks · 109 bans
Vengeful Spirit
230 picks · 263 bans
Phoenix
204 picks · 267 bans
Treant Protector
204 picks · 439 bans
Pangolier
199 picks · 418 bans
Earth Spirit
181 picks · 281 bans
Earthshaker
176 picks · 176 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 71%
Hero pool strength62% Team Zero
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total63% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:17
Invictus Gaming 63%Team Zero 37%
The model gave 63% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team Zero in 46:34.
Game 2prediction missed35:12
Invictus Gaming 63%Team Zero 37%
The model gave 63% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team Zero in 34:28.
Game 3prediction missed38:12
Invictus Gaming 63%Team Zero 37%
The model gave 63% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team Zero in 38:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 63%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3