?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Brightloss 1:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Zerowin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Bright

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
phoenix · 9 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 8 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Irving · 7 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Undyne_ · 6 games
33%
Magnus
Magnus
Irving · 6 games
33%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Undyne_ · 6 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
phoenix · 6 games
17%
Lich
Lich
Undyne_ · 5 games
40%

Team Zero

Batrider
Batridersignature
iceice · 11 games
100%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
BEYOND · 7 games
86%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
7e · 7 games
86%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
7e · 6 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
7e · 6 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Cty · 6 games
100%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
zzq · 6 games
83%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
iceice · 5 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
239 picks · 279 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
238 picks · 108 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
229 picks · 268 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
206 picks · 265 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
203 picks · 437 bans
63%
Pangolier
Pangolier
200 picks · 421 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
180 picks · 280 bans
47%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
176 picks · 176 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 69%
Hero pool strength68% Team Zero
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total72% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:19
Team Bright 35%Team Zero 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Bright in 37:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckphoenix
43% · 186 games56% · 95 games
TerrorbladeCty
Terrorblade
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidManic
47% · 203 games54% · 169 games
Pangolier7e
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerIrving
43% · 104 games54% · 108 games
Primal BeastBEYOND
Primal Beast
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionUndyne_
52% · 58 games51% · 124 games
Batridericeice
Batrider
56% · 55 games
Grimstrokezzq
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct16:34
Team Bright 33%Team Zero 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 35:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenManic
57% · 86 games55% · 39 games
GyrocopterCty
Gyrocopter
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerIrving
46% · 73 games62% · 32 games
Dazzle7e
Dazzle
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritphoenix
35% · 57 games63% · 22 games
Night StalkerBEYOND
Night Stalker
Silencer
SilencerUndyne_
40% · 132 games55% · 222 games
Batridericeice
Batrider
47% · 33 games
Weaverzzq
Weaver
Game 3prediction correct26:43
Team Bright 35%Team Zero 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 51:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenManic
52% · 176 games45% · 176 games
MorphlingCty
Morphling
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinphoenix
53% · 144 games48% · 68 games
Kunkka7e
Kunkka
Doom
DoomIrving
49% · 313 games56% · 249 games
BeastmasterBEYOND
Beastmaster
Muerta
MuertaUndyne_
48% · 84 games49% · 136 games
Batridericeice
Batrider
52% · 88 games
Grimstrokezzq
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 72%
Series resultTeam Zero 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3