ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
REKONIXloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Tusk
swedenstrong · 34 games
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 31 game
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 31 game
Warlock
Rein · 26 games
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 22 games
Venomancer
Rein · 22 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 21 game
Tiny
Squad1x · 21 game
REKONIX
Tiny
inYourdreaM · 21 game
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 20 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 18 games
Phoenixoften banned
Varizh · 14 games
Windrangeroften banned
TraVins · 14 games
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 13 games
Kezsignature
TraVins · 11 games
Muertasignature
dalul · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
512 picks · 281 bans
Phoenix
481 picks · 567 bans
Tiny
441 picks · 352 bans
Jakiro
439 picks · 345 bans
Tusk
375 picks · 326 bans
Beastmaster
347 picks · 838 bans
Puck
345 picks · 843 bans
Rubick
338 picks · 177 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% REKONIX
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:28
1w Team 56%REKONIX 44%
The model gave 56% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 1:16:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckSquad1x
KezTraVins
Monkey Kingv1olent-
Keeper of the LightinYourdreaM
Slardarмистер мораль
MarsFbz
PhoenixRein
Rubickdalul
Windrangerswedenstrong
LichVarizh
Game 2prediction correct21:11
1w Team 60%REKONIX 40%
The model gave 60% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 26:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druidv1olent-
KezTraVins
Storm SpiritSquad1x
TidehunterFbz
Largoмистер мораль
Void SpiritinYourdreaM
VenomancerRein
Dark Willowdalul
Windrangerswedenstrong
WarlockVarizh
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 62%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2