ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Riyadh Chefsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 2 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Nagato · 2 games
Bane
Nagato · 1 game
Grimstrokeoften banned
Nagato · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Muertaoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Nagato · 1 game
Spectreoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Riyadh Chefs
Magnus
OwnedMe · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
OwnedMe · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
OwnedMe · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
229 picks · 272 bans
Dark Willow
228 picks · 107 bans
Vengeful Spirit
223 picks · 271 bans
Pangolier
194 picks · 415 bans
Phoenix
194 picks · 257 bans
Treant Protector
193 picks · 415 bans
Earth Spirit
174 picks · 278 bans
Earthshaker
172 picks · 173 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Riyadh Chefs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:22
Winter Bear 54%Riyadh Chefs 46%
The model gave 54% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 36:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidLowskill
SlardarOwnedMe
GrimstrokeNagato
Game 2prediction correct37:22
Winter Bear 53%Riyadh Chefs 47%
The model gave 53% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 34:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingLowskill
AxeOwnedMe
Ancient ApparitionNagato
Model check result
Model favoriteRiyadh Chefs · 51%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2