ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
D2 Hustlersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Ceb · 12 games
Void Spirit
bzm · 12 games
Dark Seeroften banned
DM · 11 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
bzm · 11 games
Enigma
DM · 10 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
bzm · 10 games
Enchantressoften banned
Ceb · 9 games
Iooften banned
Ceb · 9 games
D2 Hustlers
Invokeroften banned
9Class · 3 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Stoic · 2 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Shad · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
9Class · 2 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Davai · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Stoic · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
Davai · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Davai · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
229 picks · 270 bans
Dark Willow
227 picks · 107 bans
Vengeful Spirit
223 picks · 271 bans
Pangolier
194 picks · 415 bans
Phoenix
194 picks · 255 bans
Treant Protector
192 picks · 414 bans
Earth Spirit
174 picks · 277 bans
Earthshaker
172 picks · 173 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% D2 Hustlers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:8
OG 63%D2 Hustlers 37%
The model gave 63% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 23:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingYuragi
BristlebackShad
Void Spiritbzm
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
Legion CommanderWisper
InvokerStojkov
MagnusAri
Weaver9Class
Treant ProtectorCeb
Ancient ApparitionStoic
Game 2prediction correct51:14
OG 61%D2 Hustlers 39%
The model gave 61% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 25:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeYuragi
SpectreShad
Puckbzm
TimbersawDavai
Spirit BreakerWisper
InvokerStojkov
Nature's ProphetCeb
Dark WillowStoic
MagnusAri
Tusk9Class
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 72%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2