ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gamax Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Treant Protectoroften banned
Nagato · 2 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Nagato · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Muertaoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Spectreoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
Nagato · 1 game
Gamax Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
228 picks · 264 bans
Dark Willow
227 picks · 106 bans
Vengeful Spirit
223 picks · 271 bans
Pangolier
193 picks · 413 bans
Phoenix
193 picks · 250 bans
Treant Protector
190 picks · 409 bans
Earth Spirit
174 picks · 277 bans
Earthshaker
172 picks · 173 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct50:35
Winter Bear 55%Gamax Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 43:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidLowskill
SpectreAlberkaaa
BaneNagato
Game 2prediction correct25:8
Winter Bear 58%Gamax Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 18:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidLowskill
WeaverAlberkaaa
Nature's ProphetNagato
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 67%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2