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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Zerowin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Asterloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Zero

Batrider
Batridersignature
iceice · 9 games
100%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
BEYOND · 6 games
83%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
7e · 6 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
7e · 6 games
83%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
zzq · 6 games
83%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iceice · 5 games
60%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
iceice · 5 games
100%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Cty · 5 games
60%

Team Aster

Rubick
Rubick
Fantasy · 22 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
SumaiL · 21 game
57%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
SumaiL · 20 games
65%
Lion
Lion
Kaka · 19 games
53%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Monet · 19 games
74%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 18 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 16 games
75%
Techies
Techiessignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
225 picks · 101 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
224 picks · 262 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
222 picks · 270 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
191 picks · 411 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
190 picks · 408 bans
64%
Phoenix
Phoenix
188 picks · 249 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
173 picks · 272 bans
47%
Sven
Sven
172 picks · 251 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 44%
Hero pool strength58% Team Zero
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total50% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:15
Team Zero 54%Team Aster 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 39:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingCty
54% · 203 games47% · 215 games
Spirit Breaker生死
Spirit Breaker
Pangolier
Pangolier7e
49% · 265 games48% · 170 games
Faceless Voidpoyoyo
Faceless Void
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBEYOND
55% · 64 games54% · 236 games
Primal BeastEcho
Primal Beast
Batrider
Batridericeice
47% · 201 game52% · 63 games
Ancient ApparitionFantasy
Ancient Apparition
Grimstroke
Grimstrokezzq
48% · 63 games46% · 112 games
HoodwinkFrisk
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct20:13
Team Zero 51%Team Aster 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 33:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingCty
46% · 99 games49% · 77 games
Muertapoyoyo
Muerta
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light7e
58% · 97 games41% · 140 games
PuckEcho
Puck
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBEYOND
58% · 121 game43% · 30 games
Wraith King生死
Wraith King
Batrider
Batridericeice
56% · 143 games48% · 201 game
Shadow DemonFrisk
Shadow Demon
Grimstroke
Grimstrokezzq
51% · 84 games48% · 96 games
Vengeful SpiritFantasy
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 50%
Series resultTeam Zero 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2