ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Entitywin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Ceb · 12 games
Dark Seeroften banned
DM · 11 games
Void Spirit
bzm · 11 games
Enigma
DM · 10 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
bzm · 10 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
bzm · 10 games
Iooften banned
Ceb · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
DM · 8 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Dark Willow
224 picks · 101 bans
Vengeful Spirit
221 picks · 270 bans
Grimstroke
220 picks · 261 bans
Pangolier
190 picks · 411 bans
Treant Protector
189 picks · 405 bans
Phoenix
187 picks · 245 bans
Earth Spirit
172 picks · 269 bans
Sven
172 picks · 251 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Entity
Head-to-head7 – 1
Model total60% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:34
OG 60%Entity 40%
The model gave 60% on OG — the game was taken by Entity in 53:01.
Game 2prediction correct44:27
OG 60%Entity 40%
The model gave 60% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 56:28.
Game 3prediction missed26:30
OG 60%Entity 40%
The model gave 60% on OG — the game was taken by Entity in 48:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 60%
Series resultEntity 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3