ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Klim Sani4loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Skywrath Mage
sayuw · 12 games
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 11 games
Techiesoften banned
Fng · 11 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 10 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Kiritych · 8 games
Dark Willowsignature
sayuw · 8 games
Klim Sani4
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
223 picks · 271 bans
Dark Willow
221 picks · 98 bans
Grimstroke
217 picks · 256 bans
Pangolier
191 picks · 407 bans
Phoenix
185 picks · 244 bans
Treant Protector
182 picks · 402 bans
Earth Spirit
172 picks · 270 bans
Sven
172 picks · 251 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 75%
Hero pool strength57% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:41
Virtus.pro 72%Klim Sani4 28%
The model gave 72% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 1:24:33.
Game 2prediction missed24:40
Virtus.pro 72%Klim Sani4 28%
The model gave 72% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Klim Sani4 in 1:02:23.
Game 3prediction correct46:17
Virtus.pro 72%Klim Sani4 28%
The model gave 72% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 36:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 72%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3