Team Falcons vs Winter Bear — prediction EOKL2ЗК · Dota 2

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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Team Falconswin 2:0

series probability

83%17%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Winter Bearloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

No games played over 6 months.

Winter Bear

Grimstrokeoften banned

Nagato · 1 game

100%

Muertaoften banned

Lowskill · 1 game

100%

Spectreoften banned

Lowskill · 1 game

100%

Undyingoften banned

Nagato · 1 game

100%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Vengeful Spirit

223 picks · 271 bans

52%

Dark Willow

221 picks · 98 bans

52%

Grimstroke

217 picks · 256 bans

52%

Pangolier

191 picks · 407 bans

53%

Phoenix

185 picks · 244 bans

47%

Treant Protector

182 picks · 402 bans

65%

Earth Spirit

172 picks · 270 bans

47%

Sven

172 picks · 251 bans

57%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)60% vs 67%

Hero pool strength58% Winter Bear

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total83% Team Falcons

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct31:14

Team Falcons 68%Winter Bear 32%

The model gave 68% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 43:24.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo