ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:0series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Riyadh Chefsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PSG Quest
Rubick
OmaR · 34 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 34 games
Techiessignature
OmaR · 24 games
Phoenixoften banned
Kaori · 20 games
Miranasignature
OmaR · 19 games
Silencersignature
Kaori · 19 games
Snapfiresignature
No!ob · 19 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
TA2000 · 18 games
Riyadh Chefs
Bristlebackoften banned
OwnedMe · 1 game
Magnus
OwnedMe · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
223 picks · 271 bans
Dark Willow
221 picks · 98 bans
Grimstroke
217 picks · 256 bans
Pangolier
191 picks · 407 bans
Phoenix
185 picks · 244 bans
Treant Protector
182 picks · 402 bans
Earth Spirit
172 picks · 270 bans
Sven
172 picks · 251 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Riyadh Chefs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:5
PSG Quest 76%Riyadh Chefs 24%
The model gave 76% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 21:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverTA2000
TidehunterOwnedMe
PangolierNo!ob
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
Treant ProtectorKaori
Dark WillowOmaR
Game 2prediction correct44:16
PSG Quest 71%Riyadh Chefs 29%
The model gave 71% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 33:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DazzleNo!ob
MagnusOwnedMe
WeaverTA2000
TidehunterMalik
TuskKaori
RubickOmaR
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 89%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2