ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:1series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Execrationloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Rubick
Oli · 18 games
Silenceroften banned
Oli · 18 games
Windranger
Mikoto · 16 games
Morphlingoften banned
23savage · 14 games
Batridersignature
Q · 13 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 12 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Q · 12 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
23savage · 12 games
Execration
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 13 games
Underlordsignature
Tino- · 9 games
Doomoften banned
Tino- · 8 games
Dark Willow
Shanks · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Bob · 7 games
Puckoften banned
Bob · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
222 picks · 271 bans
Grimstroke
217 picks · 250 bans
Dark Willow
215 picks · 97 bans
Pangolier
191 picks · 406 bans
Phoenix
181 picks · 241 bans
Treant Protector
177 picks · 402 bans
Sven
172 picks · 251 bans
Earth Spirit
170 picks · 266 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% Talon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total59% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:25
Talon Esports 45%Execration 55%
The model gave 55% on Execration — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 42:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawWs
Faceless VoidPalos
Phantom AssassinAkashi
DawnbreakerTino-
KunkkaYowe
Monkey KingBob
Dark WillowJhocam
TuskShanks
Treant ProtectorPonyo
Phoenixcml
Game 2prediction correct14:31
Talon Esports 44%Execration 56%
The model gave 56% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 34:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinAkashi
BristlebackTino-
Earth SpiritYowe
MorphlingPalos
BrewmasterWs
KunkkaBob
PhoenixJhocam
PugnaShanks
Treant ProtectorPonyo
Marcicml
Game 3prediction missed40:18
Talon Esports 45%Execration 55%
The model gave 55% on Execration — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 40:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenAkashi
BeastmasterTino-
Lone DruidWs
Templar AssassinPalos
Earth SpiritYowe
Primal BeastBob
Ancient ApparitionPonyo
Dark WillowShanks
WeaverJhocam
Clockwerkcml
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 59%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3