ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Eagleloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Rubick
Fantasy · 22 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
SumaiL · 21 game
Snapfiresignature
SumaiL · 20 games
Lion
Kaka · 19 games
Medusasignature
Monet · 19 games
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 18 games
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 16 games
Techiessignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
Eagle
Muertaoften banned
Tz. · 3 games
Dark Willow
mercy · 2 games
Magnus
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 2 games
Necrophosoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Shadow Demon
mercy · 2 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
ukiyo · 2 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Tz. · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
222 picks · 271 bans
Grimstroke
217 picks · 250 bans
Dark Willow
215 picks · 97 bans
Pangolier
191 picks · 406 bans
Phoenix
181 picks · 241 bans
Treant Protector
177 picks · 402 bans
Sven
172 picks · 251 bans
Earth Spirit
170 picks · 266 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Eagle
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:10
Team Aster 70%Eagle 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 33:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Voidpoyoyo
Muertaukiyo
KunkkaEcho
EarthshakerButterflyEffect
Dawnbreaker生死
PhoenixTz.
Dark WillowFrisk
Batridermercy
ClockwerkFantasy
Game 2prediction correct41:13
Team Aster 68%Eagle 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 39:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King生死
Lunaukiyo
Weaverpoyoyo
PuckButterflyEffect
DazzleEcho
Lionmercy
Dark WillowFrisk
Treant ProtectorTz.
ClockwerkFantasy
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 83%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2