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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Bleed Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

No games played over 6 months.

Bleed Esports

Silencer
Silencersignature
DuBu · 11 games
82%
Medusa
Medusasignature
JaCkky · 8 games
63%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
JaCkky · 8 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
iceiceice · 6 games
83%
Doom
Doomoften banned
iceiceice · 6 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
DJ · 6 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
DuBu · 6 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
222 picks · 271 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
217 picks · 250 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
215 picks · 97 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
191 picks · 406 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
181 picks · 241 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
177 picks · 402 bans
65%
Sven
Sven
172 picks · 251 bans
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
170 picks · 266 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength55% Bleed Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:9
Aurora Gaming 60%Bleed Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 32:24.
Game 2prediction missed44:17
Aurora Gaming 60%Bleed Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 50:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 60%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2