ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 0:2series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Brightwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Rubick
Fantasy · 22 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
SumaiL · 21 game
Snapfiresignature
SumaiL · 20 games
Lion
Kaka · 19 games
Medusasignature
Monet · 19 games
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 18 games
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 16 games
Techiessignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
Team Bright
Pangolieroften banned
phoenix · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 8 games
Disruptor
Undyne_ · 6 games
Magnus
Irving · 6 games
Void Spirit
phoenix · 6 games
Doomoften banned
Irving · 5 games
Lich
Undyne_ · 5 games
Silenceroften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
225 picks · 273 bans
Grimstroke
214 picks · 248 bans
Dark Willow
213 picks · 93 bans
Pangolier
190 picks · 407 bans
Phoenix
180 picks · 241 bans
Treant Protector
174 picks · 402 bans
Sven
172 picks · 251 bans
Earth Spirit
170 picks · 266 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 64%
Hero pool strength57% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total72% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:20
Team Aster 63%Team Bright 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Bright in 49:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spirit Breaker生死
MorphlingManic
Faceless Voidpoyoyo
Primal Beastphoenix
WeaverFrisk
TidehunterIrving
MagnusEcho
MuertaUndyne_
PhoenixFantasy
Game 2prediction missed23:27
Team Aster 59%Team Bright 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Bright in 40:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinpoyoyo
Chaos KnightManic
Wraith King生死
Queen of Painphoenix
Primal BeastEcho
DoomIrving
Dark WillowFrisk
Ancient ApparitionUndyne_
PhoenixFantasy
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 72%
Series resultTeam Bright 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2