ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Geek Famwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Geek Fam
Dark Seersignature
Force · 10 games
Clockwerksignature
NARMAN · 8 games
Rubicksignature
NARMAN · 7 games
Axe
Force · 6 games
Pugnasignature
Skem · 6 games
Svensignature
Ulnit · 6 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
NARMAN · 6 games
Warlock
Skem · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
225 picks · 273 bans
Grimstroke
214 picks · 248 bans
Dark Willow
213 picks · 93 bans
Pangolier
190 picks · 407 bans
Phoenix
180 picks · 241 bans
Treant Protector
174 picks · 402 bans
Sven
172 picks · 251 bans
Earth Spirit
170 picks · 266 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 69%
Hero pool strength58% Geek Fam
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:17
Aurora Gaming 56%Geek Fam 44%
The model gave 56% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 52:14.
Game 2prediction missed38:27
Aurora Gaming 56%Geek Fam 44%
The model gave 56% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 57:30.
Game 3prediction missed21:18
Aurora Gaming 56%Geek Fam 44%
The model gave 56% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 49:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 56%
Series resultGeek Fam 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3