ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Silenceroften banned
Oli · 18 games
Rubick
Oli · 17 games
Windranger
Mikoto · 16 games
Morphlingoften banned
23savage · 14 games
Batridersignature
Q · 13 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 12 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Q · 12 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
23savage · 12 games
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
225 picks · 273 bans
Grimstroke
214 picks · 248 bans
Dark Willow
213 picks · 93 bans
Pangolier
190 picks · 407 bans
Phoenix
180 picks · 241 bans
Treant Protector
174 picks · 402 bans
Sven
172 picks · 251 bans
Earth Spirit
170 picks · 266 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% Talon Esports
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total58% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:31
Talon Esports 42%Blacklist International 58%
The model gave 58% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 34:52.
Game 2prediction missed39:15
Talon Esports 42%Blacklist International 58%
The model gave 58% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 43:54.
Game 3prediction correct12:37
Talon Esports 42%Blacklist International 58%
The model gave 58% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 31:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 58%
Series resultBlacklist International 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3