ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Fart Studiosloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TRTeam Rocketwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fart Studios
Earth Spiritoften banned
Newsham · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
monkeys-forever · 3 games
Clockwerk
Jenkins · 3 games
Dark Willow
Newsham · 3 games
Dragon Knight
BSJ · 3 games
Techiesoften banned
Jenkins · 3 games
Doomoften banned
monkeys-forever · 2 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Jenkins · 2 games
Team Rocket
Muertaoften banned
BliNcc · 2 games
Zeus
Mo13ei · 2 games
Alchemist
Arms · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Moo · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Moo · 1 game
Earth Spiritoften banned
RRL · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Mo13ei · 1 game
Lone Druidoften banned
Sammyboy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
225 picks · 273 bans
Grimstroke
212 picks · 242 bans
Dark Willow
208 picks · 93 bans
Pangolier
189 picks · 403 bans
Phoenix
179 picks · 240 bans
Sven
171 picks · 251 bans
Treant Protector
171 picks · 396 bans
Earth Spirit
170 picks · 266 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Fart Studios
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Team Rocket
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:31
Fart Studios 48%Team Rocket 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Rocket — the game was taken by Team Rocket in 51:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverFear
Faceless VoidArms
ZeusiAnnihilate
DazzleRRL
PhoenixNewsham
Dark WillowSanctified
Treant ProtectorJenkins
Game 2prediction correct20:43
Fart Studios 48%Team Rocket 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Rocket — the game was taken by Team Rocket in 34:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaFear
SpectreArms
KunkkaiAnnihilate
MagnusRRL
PugnaNewsham
Dark WillowSanctified
TuskJenkins
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Rocket · 51%
Series resultTeam Rocket 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2