ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Estar Backswin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KKaiserloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Estar Backs
Bloodseekeroften banned
Mnz · 3 games
Rubick
Michael · 2 games
Dark Willow
Michael · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
Mnz · 1 game
Grimstrokeoften banned
Michael · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
StingeR · 1 game
Shadow Demon
StingeR · 1 game
Silenceroften banned
StingeR · 1 game
Kaiser
Bristlebackoften banned
Valquiria · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Argius · 2 games
Muertaoften banned
d1smar · 2 games
Axe
Valquiria · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Valquiria · 1 game
Dark Willow
d1smar · 1 game
Spectreoften banned
Argius · 1 game
Weaveroften banned
d1smar · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
225 picks · 273 bans
Grimstroke
212 picks · 242 bans
Dark Willow
208 picks · 93 bans
Pangolier
189 picks · 403 bans
Phoenix
179 picks · 240 bans
Sven
171 picks · 251 bans
Treant Protector
171 picks · 396 bans
Earth Spirit
170 picks · 266 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Kaiser
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:28
Estar Backs 58%Kaiser 42%
The model gave 58% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 55:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidMnz
Naga SirenArgius
MuertaMichael
Centaur WarrunnerValquiria
Vengeful SpiritStingeR
Invokerd1smar
Game 2prediction correct31:11
Estar Backs 60%Kaiser 40%
The model gave 60% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 23:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterMnz
Faceless VoidArgius
SnapfireMichael
TidehunterValquiria
Treant ProtectorStingeR
Tuskd1smar
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 65%
Series resultEstar Backs 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2