ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangzhiganluwin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Sand King Gomezloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yangzhiganlu
No games played over 6 months.
Sand King Gomez
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
N1NE · 7 games
Mirana
N1NE · 6 games
Silenceroften banned
Jubei · 5 games
Dark Willow
N1NE · 4 games
Rubick
N1NE · 4 games
Skywrath Mage
N1NE · 4 games
Clockwerk
Jubei · 3 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
CHAAANNN · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
225 picks · 273 bans
Grimstroke
210 picks · 240 bans
Dark Willow
207 picks · 92 bans
Pangolier
187 picks · 399 bans
Phoenix
177 picks · 239 bans
Sven
171 picks · 250 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 171 bans
Treant Protector
169 picks · 391 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 56%
Hero pool strength58% Yangzhiganlu
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Yangzhiganlu
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:24
Yangzhiganlu 66%Sand King Gomez 34%
The model gave 66% on Yangzhiganlu — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez in 31:51.
Game 2prediction missed32:21
Yangzhiganlu 66%Sand King Gomez 34%
The model gave 66% on Yangzhiganlu — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez in 30:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteYangzhiganlu · 66%
Series resultYangzhiganlu 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2