ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Starswin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KKaiserloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Keyd Stars
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 10 games
Tusk
Kingrd · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 6 games
Skywrath Magesignature
Kingrd · 6 games
Svenoften banned
Costabile · 6 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kingrd · 5 games
Bristlebackoften banned
FCR · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 5 games
Kaiser
Muertaoften banned
d1smar · 2 games
Axe
Valquiria · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
Valquiria · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
Argius · 1 game
Spectreoften banned
Argius · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
225 picks · 273 bans
Grimstroke
210 picks · 240 bans
Dark Willow
207 picks · 92 bans
Pangolier
187 picks · 399 bans
Phoenix
177 picks · 239 bans
Sven
171 picks · 250 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 171 bans
Treant Protector
169 picks · 391 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 67%
Hero pool strength58% Kaiser
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Keyd Stars
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:16
Keyd Stars 53%Kaiser 47%
The model gave 53% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 40:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaCostabile
Faceless VoidArgius
BrewmasterFCR
BristlebackValquiria
Huskar4nalog
Dark Willowd1smar
ClockwerkKJ
Skywrath MageKingrd
Game 2prediction correct44:21
Keyd Stars 56%Kaiser 44%
The model gave 56% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 45:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidCostabile
Wraith KingArgius
Puck4nalog
Centaur WarrunnerValquiria
Primal BeastFCR
Weaverd1smar
Skywrath MageKingrd
EnchantressKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteKeyd Stars · 55%
Series resultKeyd Stars 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2