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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fart Studiosloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 22 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
kasane · 18 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 15 games
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 13 games
54%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Timado · 10 games
70%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Ari · 10 games
70%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
kasane · 9 games
56%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 9 games
67%

Fart Studios

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Newsham · 4 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
monkeys-forever · 3 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Jenkins · 3 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
BSJ · 3 games
100%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Jenkins · 3 games
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Newsham · 2 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
monkeys-forever · 2 games
50%
Io
Iooften banned
Newsham · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
223 picks · 272 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
203 picks · 90 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
202 picks · 232 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
185 picks · 399 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
174 picks · 232 bans
48%
Sven
Sven
170 picks · 250 bans
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
169 picks · 171 bans
59%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
166 picks · 377 bans
65%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Fart Studios
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:9
TSM 73%Fart Studios 27%
The model gave 73% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 32:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painbryle-
52% · 71 game53% · 18 games
Lone DruidFear
Lone Druid
Weaver
WeaverTimado
50% · 27 games49% · 217 games
PangolieriAnnihilate
Pangolier
Kunkka
Kunkkakasane
47% · 70 games49% · 102 games
Dark WillowNewsham
Dark Willow
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionImmersion
57% · 34 games48% · 53 games
GrimstrokeJenkins
Grimstroke
Tusk
TuskWhitemon
51% · 188 games
Game 2prediction correct41:12
TSM 74%Fart Studios 26%
The model gave 74% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 29:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightTimado
57% · 31 game53% · 16 games
Lone DruidFear
Lone Druid
Luna
Lunakasane
62% · 13 games55% · 69 games
Earth SpiritiAnnihilate
Earth Spirit
Dazzle
Dazzlebryle-
62% · 13 games48% · 58 games
MuertaNewsham
Muerta
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
43% · 54 games45% · 33 games
PudgeJenkins
Pudge
Tusk
TuskImmersion
44% · 65 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 87%
Series resultTSM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2