ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Allianceloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
222 picks · 272 bans
Dark Willow
203 picks · 88 bans
Grimstroke
200 picks · 230 bans
Pangolier
185 picks · 399 bans
Phoenix
172 picks · 230 bans
Sven
170 picks · 250 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 171 bans
Treant Protector
165 picks · 375 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Entity
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:37
Entity 67%Alliance 33%
The model gave 67% on Entity — the game was taken by Alliance in 35:24.
Game 2prediction missed11:40
Entity 67%Alliance 33%
The model gave 67% on Entity — the game was taken by Alliance in 27:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 67%
Series resultEntity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2