ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Secretloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Ceb · 12 games
Dark Seeroften banned
DM · 11 games
Void Spirit
bzm · 11 games
Enigma
DM · 10 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
bzm · 10 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
bzm · 10 games
Iooften banned
Ceb · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
DM · 8 games
Team Secret
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 17 games
Batrideroften banned
yamich · 16 games
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 14 games
Snapfire
Armel · 13 games
Magnus
Armel · 12 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Armel · 12 games
Windranger
Crystallis · 12 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
222 picks · 272 bans
Dark Willow
203 picks · 88 bans
Grimstroke
200 picks · 230 bans
Pangolier
185 picks · 399 bans
Phoenix
172 picks · 230 bans
Sven
170 picks · 250 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 171 bans
Treant Protector
165 picks · 375 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% Team Secret
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total55% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:21
OG 51%Team Secret 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 39:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidYuragi
SpectreCrystallis
TimbersawWisper
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
Earth Spiritbzm
Void SpiritMidOne
MuertaAri
Tuskyamich
PhoenixCeb
GrimstrokePuppey
Game 2prediction missed30:20
OG 50%Team Secret 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Secret — the game was taken by OG in 40:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaYuragi
WeaverCrystallis
Dragon KnightWisper
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
Puckbzm
Pugnayamich
RubickAri
RikiMidOne
PhoenixCeb
EnchantressPuppey
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 55%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2