ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Woofer Fansloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
No games played over 6 months.
Woofer Fans
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
222 picks · 272 bans
Dark Willow
202 picks · 88 bans
Grimstroke
197 picks · 227 bans
Pangolier
185 picks · 398 bans
Phoenix
170 picks · 227 bans
Sven
170 picks · 250 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 171 bans
Earth Spirit
163 picks · 262 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:16
Winter Bear 64%Woofer Fans 36%
The model gave 64% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 40:00.
Game 2prediction correct31:5
Winter Bear 64%Woofer Fans 36%
The model gave 64% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 27:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 64%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2