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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team_Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
sayuw · 12 games
58%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Fng · 11 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 10 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 10 games
40%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 10 games
90%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Squad1x · 8 games
88%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Noticed · 8 games
50%

Team_Team

Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
EcNart · 2 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Moonlight · 2 games
50%
Axe
Axe
Infernal · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 1 game
100%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Crystallize · 1 game
100%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
Infernal · 1 game
100%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Moonlight · 1 game
100%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Crystallize · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
222 picks · 272 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
202 picks · 88 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
197 picks · 227 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
185 picks · 398 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
170 picks · 227 bans
48%
Sven
Sven
170 picks · 250 bans
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
169 picks · 171 bans
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
163 picks · 262 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:12
Virtus.pro 68%Team_Team 32%
The model gave 68% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 28:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunav1olent-
53% · 29 games40% · 35 games
WeaverCrystallize
Weaver
Puck
PuckSquad1x
49% · 94 games45% · 68 games
Dragon KnightMoonlight
Dragon Knight
Magnus
MagnusNoticed
56% · 54 games37% · 79 games
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
Centaur Warrunner
Pugna
Pugnasayuw
60% · 61 game51% · 232 games
ClockwerkEcNart
Clockwerk
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFng
60% · 176 games
Game 2prediction correct34:14
Virtus.pro 65%Team_Team 35%
The model gave 65% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 34:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightNoticed
50% · 57 games54% · 115 games
LinaMoonlight
Lina
Weaver
Weaverv1olent-
54% · 31 game48% · 90 games
Faceless VoidCrystallize
Faceless Void
Puck
PuckSquad1x
49% · 75 games45% · 62 games
BrewmasterInfernal
Brewmaster
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsayuw
51% · 70 games53% · 231 game
Treant ProtectorEcNart
Treant Protector
Tusk
TuskFng
49% · 265 games
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 78%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2